The Poilievre Paradox

Four weeks in, the Conservative leader’s numbers are bad. Is his party looking for an exit?

Four weeks after the election, and the numbers for Pierre Poilievre aren’t bad.

They’re alarming.

Scroll through X (formerly Twitter) or tune into conservative media, and you’d think Carney was torching Canadian democracy while Poilievre prepares for his heroic comeback. But the latest Nanos polling paints a picture bound to spark hushed conversations in Conservative backrooms.

Not long ago, my question “Is Poilievre digging his own grave?” felt like a fringe thought experiment. Since announcing his Alberta by-election gambit, the murmurs have grown louder. The polls are grim, and his relentless “Carney bashing” still isn’t resonating outside the conservative echo chamber.

Meanwhile, Mark Carney’s preferred PM numbers haven’t budged since the election. It’s early, but Canadians seem content with his steady, dad-energy leadership and centrist policy pledges.

Poilievre’s preferred PM numbers have plummeted, down 12.3% since Election Day. Ouch. Without a seat in the House to launch his attacks, he’s been relegated to cringe-worthy Parliament Hill strolls and staged photo ops, where he doubles down on the same tired sloganeering and performative outrage.

Party support deepens the plot line: the Liberals hold firm at 41%, while the Conservatives have dipped 3%. The fact that the party’s decline is milder than Poilievre’s personal free fall only underscores the real question: Should the Tories cut their losses and move on?

The issue isn’t just whether Poilievre can recover. It’s whether his party will even let him try.